ACADEMY AWARDS 2018 PICKS
The big day is almost upon us! Awards season has been confusing so far, it’s still anyone’s game in certain categories. It’s also a question of being torn between what one WANTS to win, and what will win.
Best Picture: Things are surprisingly close this year, however I don’t think either of the films with the best odds of winning this category are ACTUALLY the Best Picture of the year.
“Call Me by Your Name” – They will probably not be calling this name out on Oscar night, at least not in this category.
“Darkest Hour” – While probably a lock for Lead Actor, this is one of those “it’s an honor to be nominated” scenarios.
“Dunkirk” – Having two World War II films about the same time period also probably didn’t help this or Darkest Hour’s odds.
“Get Out” – While I sincerely hope this wins, I have a sinking (sunken?) feeling this won’t get the recognition it deserves. If it pulls a Moonlight though that would be a true triumph.
-Allison Williams and Daniel Kaluuya chatted with me about “Get Out”
“Lady Bird” – Another one I would love to see take home the gold. However unfortunately I think it has a better shot at Best Original Screenplay.
“Phantom Thread” – No. I don’t care that it’s Daniel Day-Lewis’ last performance on screen (so he says). I felt it was beyond overrated.
“The Post” – Same goes for this one, I’m honestly a little offended it was nominated. I truly felt it was phoned in, and parlayed its pedigree to a spot it didn’t deserve here.
“The Shape of Water” – While I still think Get Out or Lady Bird are more deserving, I think this one has the highest odds since it’s all around well done.
–Stars Michael Shannon and Michael Stuhlbarg discussed monsters and the movie.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – However, Three Billboards has been taking home top honors at other awards shows… it could be a Crash like upset.
“Call Me by Your Name” – They will probably not be calling this name out on Oscar night, at least not in this category.
“Darkest Hour” – While probably a lock for Lead Actor, this is one of those “it’s an honor to be nominated” scenarios.
“Dunkirk” – Having two World War II films about the same time period also probably didn’t help this or Darkest Hour’s odds.
“Get Out” – While I sincerely hope this wins, I have a sinking (sunken?) feeling this won’t get the recognition it deserves. If it pulls a Moonlight though that would be a true triumph.
-Allison Williams and Daniel Kaluuya chatted with me about “Get Out”
“Lady Bird” – Another one I would love to see take home the gold. However unfortunately I think it has a better shot at Best Original Screenplay.
“Phantom Thread” – No. I don’t care that it’s Daniel Day-Lewis’ last performance on screen (so he says). I felt it was beyond overrated.
“The Post” – Same goes for this one, I’m honestly a little offended it was nominated. I truly felt it was phoned in, and parlayed its pedigree to a spot it didn’t deserve here.
“The Shape of Water” – While I still think Get Out or Lady Bird are more deserving, I think this one has the highest odds since it’s all around well done.
–Stars Michael Shannon and Michael Stuhlbarg discussed monsters and the movie.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – However, Three Billboards has been taking home top honors at other awards shows… it could be a Crash like upset.
Lead Actor: Expect few surprises here.
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” – as much as the youths stan him (am I using that right?) I don’t think it’s his year. He does seem to have quite the career trajectory ahead of him so I don’t doubt he’ll be seen in this category again.
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread” – I’ve repeatedly said how overrated I thought this film and performance were. I think Day-Lewis’ repeated losses to Oldman at every major Awards show might mean that he comes out of retirement some day.
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out” – How fucking cool would this be? However I get the sense that The Academy is simply patting themselves on the back for nominating him in the first place and that will be the end of it.
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” – It’s been a Firebolt quality sweep for Ol’ Sirius Black. Did I think this was the best performance of the year? No. Do I accept that it’s going to win the Academy Award? Yes. Is it still kinda messed up that in this season of #metoo no one is commenting on Oldman’s own questionable behavior? You bet.
-Director Joe Wright on Winston Churchill/Gary Oldman.
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” – Did the people doing the nominating even see this film? My guess is they did not, for if they had they’d have realized how awful it was. Denzel is getting a career (and probably diversity) nod here.
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name” – as much as the youths stan him (am I using that right?) I don’t think it’s his year. He does seem to have quite the career trajectory ahead of him so I don’t doubt he’ll be seen in this category again.
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread” – I’ve repeatedly said how overrated I thought this film and performance were. I think Day-Lewis’ repeated losses to Oldman at every major Awards show might mean that he comes out of retirement some day.
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out” – How fucking cool would this be? However I get the sense that The Academy is simply patting themselves on the back for nominating him in the first place and that will be the end of it.
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” – It’s been a Firebolt quality sweep for Ol’ Sirius Black. Did I think this was the best performance of the year? No. Do I accept that it’s going to win the Academy Award? Yes. Is it still kinda messed up that in this season of #metoo no one is commenting on Oldman’s own questionable behavior? You bet.
-Director Joe Wright on Winston Churchill/Gary Oldman.
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” – Did the people doing the nominating even see this film? My guess is they did not, for if they had they’d have realized how awful it was. Denzel is getting a career (and probably diversity) nod here.
Gary Oldman winning Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 24th Annual SAG Awards. Since actors vote on the category, expect him to bring home a friend for that prize.
Lead Actress: Again, consider this one on lock.
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water” – I thought Sally Hawkins was great in this film, though I think it’s a little sad Doug Jones didn’t get a nomination for his performance as the creature. After all, they were both silent, but he had to give his performance through a freaky amount of makeup/SFX costuming…
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – If Frances McDormand doesn’t win this I will eat my hat. I don’t think she deserves it, but the other awards shows have spoken. I do hope they bleep her at weird points during this speech too. Just for the drinking game factor.
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” – Sorry Margot, even though we just came off the Winter Olympics, I don’t think that will carry you through to bringing home the gold in this category.
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” – How unfair is it that Saoirse has been nominated three times by the time she was 23? I was proud to just to be figuring out my own taxes at 23, let alone being a three time Oscar nominee. However I don’t think third time’s the charm for her, as much as I want her to win.
Meryl Streep, “The Post” – Meryl Streep has given way better performances in way better films. Another legacy nod.
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water” – I thought Sally Hawkins was great in this film, though I think it’s a little sad Doug Jones didn’t get a nomination for his performance as the creature. After all, they were both silent, but he had to give his performance through a freaky amount of makeup/SFX costuming…
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – If Frances McDormand doesn’t win this I will eat my hat. I don’t think she deserves it, but the other awards shows have spoken. I do hope they bleep her at weird points during this speech too. Just for the drinking game factor.
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” – Sorry Margot, even though we just came off the Winter Olympics, I don’t think that will carry you through to bringing home the gold in this category.
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” – How unfair is it that Saoirse has been nominated three times by the time she was 23? I was proud to just to be figuring out my own taxes at 23, let alone being a three time Oscar nominee. However I don’t think third time’s the charm for her, as much as I want her to win.
Meryl Streep, “The Post” – Meryl Streep has given way better performances in way better films. Another legacy nod.
Frances McDormand winning Best Actress in a Drama at the 2018 Golden Globes
Supporting Actor: There’s a tiny bit of wiggle room here, but not by much.
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project” – The Academy can nominate up to 10 films in the Best Picture category, this year they only nominated 9. I think the 10th spot should have gone to The Florida Project. It’d be nice to see Dafoe recognized, but alas I think Mr. Rockwell will take it.
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – I could see him stealing votes from Rockwell/splitting the vote, but given the way voting is structured, and that Rockwell took home both the Golden Globe and the SAG award, I think it belongs to him.
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water” – I guess it’s nice to be nominated?
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World” – How badass is Christopher Plummer in this role that he filmed in 9 days…. At the age of 88. Alas I don’t see this as likely.
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – Unless somehow Rockwell and Harrelson accidentally split the votes, I see ol’ Sam-o winning.
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project” – The Academy can nominate up to 10 films in the Best Picture category, this year they only nominated 9. I think the 10th spot should have gone to The Florida Project. It’d be nice to see Dafoe recognized, but alas I think Mr. Rockwell will take it.
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – I could see him stealing votes from Rockwell/splitting the vote, but given the way voting is structured, and that Rockwell took home both the Golden Globe and the SAG award, I think it belongs to him.
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water” – I guess it’s nice to be nominated?
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World” – How badass is Christopher Plummer in this role that he filmed in 9 days…. At the age of 88. Alas I don’t see this as likely.
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” – Unless somehow Rockwell and Harrelson accidentally split the votes, I see ol’ Sam-o winning.
Even in his acceptance speech for Best Supporting Actor at the 2018 Golden Globes, Sam Rockwell is Acting.
Supporting Actress: I’d say ⅘ of these actresses really belong in this category…
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound” – Can we talk about how badass it is that Mary J. Blige is nominated in two different categories this year? A true legend, who unfortunately will not be winning in this category tonight.
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” – As much as I’d like Laurie Metcalf to win, I think Janney is certainly deserving of the prize.
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread” – One of these things is not like the others…. And that’s Manville, who’s freaky performance in Phantom Thread I would not consider Oscar worthy.
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” – I dare you not to call your mother after seeing Laurie Metcalf’s performance in Lady Bird.
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water” – I thought Octavia was good in the film, just not good enough to beat Metcalf or Janney.
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound” – Can we talk about how badass it is that Mary J. Blige is nominated in two different categories this year? A true legend, who unfortunately will not be winning in this category tonight.
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” – As much as I’d like Laurie Metcalf to win, I think Janney is certainly deserving of the prize.
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread” – One of these things is not like the others…. And that’s Manville, who’s freaky performance in Phantom Thread I would not consider Oscar worthy.
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” – I dare you not to call your mother after seeing Laurie Metcalf’s performance in Lady Bird.
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water” – I thought Octavia was good in the film, just not good enough to beat Metcalf or Janney.
The Brits liked Allison Janney enough to give her the Supporting Actress BAFTA in 2018.
Director: I’m incredibly torn over this category. Also Dee Rees should have had Paul Thomas Anderson’s spot.
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan – This is somehow Nolan’s first nomination. However it is unlikely to be his first win.
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele – How epic would this win be? Peele would be the first Black director to win.
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig – What would be more epic? Gerwig winning. She’s only the 5th woman ever to even be nominated.
-Greta Gerwig discussed finding the perfect cast to direct.
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson – No thanks, not for this.
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro – Don’t get me wrong, I love Guillermo del Toro. He’s a brilliant filmmaker, and incredibly nice to boot. However I just feel more strongly about some of his competitors. That being said I think he will win.
-Here’s my interview with Guillermo Del Toro for his last film, “Crimson Peak”
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan – This is somehow Nolan’s first nomination. However it is unlikely to be his first win.
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele – How epic would this win be? Peele would be the first Black director to win.
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig – What would be more epic? Gerwig winning. She’s only the 5th woman ever to even be nominated.
-Greta Gerwig discussed finding the perfect cast to direct.
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson – No thanks, not for this.
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro – Don’t get me wrong, I love Guillermo del Toro. He’s a brilliant filmmaker, and incredibly nice to boot. However I just feel more strongly about some of his competitors. That being said I think he will win.
-Here’s my interview with Guillermo Del Toro for his last film, “Crimson Peak”
It’s tough to dislike the self deprecating Guillermo del Toro, who won Best Director at the Golden Globes.
Animated Feature: Yes. The Boss Baby is an Oscar Nominee.
“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito – Look, it takes a lot of effort from a lot of people to make a film, particularly an animated film. However do I think The Boss Baby deserves an Oscar nod? Nope…
-A chat with the filmmakers behind “The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo – Full disclosure, I haven’t had a chance to see this yet, but I’ve heard good things. It could be an upset.
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson – Everybody loves Pixar, myself and the Academy voters included. It would have been nice to see Co-Director Adrian Molina (who’s actually Hispanic) nominated as well, but the rules appear to be stupid.
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha – Much like The Boss Baby, Ferdinand should probably just be happy it’s nominated.
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman – Another one I’ve yet to see but I’ve heard good things about. A possible upset, but unlikely.
“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito – Look, it takes a lot of effort from a lot of people to make a film, particularly an animated film. However do I think The Boss Baby deserves an Oscar nod? Nope…
-A chat with the filmmakers behind “The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo – Full disclosure, I haven’t had a chance to see this yet, but I’ve heard good things. It could be an upset.
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson – Everybody loves Pixar, myself and the Academy voters included. It would have been nice to see Co-Director Adrian Molina (who’s actually Hispanic) nominated as well, but the rules appear to be stupid.
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha – Much like The Boss Baby, Ferdinand should probably just be happy it’s nominated.
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman – Another one I’ve yet to see but I’ve heard good things about. A possible upset, but unlikely.
Sad that if Coco wins, co-director Adrian Molina technically won’t have a statue of his own.
Animated Short: Full disclosure, I only saw one of these films.
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant – Hey remember that time Kobe Bryant sexually assaulted someone? No? As much as I admire and respect Glen Keane’s contribution to animation, I’m a little disappointed he paired up with Bryant. However their starpower in their respective fields (yes, Glen Keane really is a rockstar to animators) will probably snag them the win.
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon – I can’t weigh in on this one, as alas I did not see it..
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray – This is the only of these films I did see, and I thought it was very cute, but don’t know if it can take home the Oscar.
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata – Again, apologies but didn’t see it.
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer – I really failed at this category this year.
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant – Hey remember that time Kobe Bryant sexually assaulted someone? No? As much as I admire and respect Glen Keane’s contribution to animation, I’m a little disappointed he paired up with Bryant. However their starpower in their respective fields (yes, Glen Keane really is a rockstar to animators) will probably snag them the win.
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon – I can’t weigh in on this one, as alas I did not see it..
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray – This is the only of these films I did see, and I thought it was very cute, but don’t know if it can take home the Oscar.
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata – Again, apologies but didn’t see it.
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer – I really failed at this category this year.
We’re going to bring a spotlight to #metoo… but probably give Kobe an Oscar?
Adapted Screenplay: A slim margin for an upset here, but everything will probably be just peachy.
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory – Since it’s unlikely that this film will win in other categories, it may get a pity vote. I think the strongest competitor is Mudbound but I don’t think the Academy will give that film the recognition it deserves.
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – At one point I’d have considered this a contender as an outsider upset, but once awards season kicked into high gear it’s been made clear that award shows no longer seem to want to recognize the film (likely due to its star/director, James Franco, who I’ve still yet to sort out my feelings on the allegations aimed at him).
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green – Not a chance, but kinda cool to see a comic book adaptation nominated. I also thought there was a chance Logan could grab one of the Best Picture spots, but I’m left puzzled by the decision to only fill 9 of the 10 possible films.
-My interview with James Mangold and the cast of Logan.
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin – I’ll be real upset if this wins. Sorkin is a great writer most of the time, but this film suffered from a serious case of hubris.
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees – I’d be pretty happy if this won. Dee Rees was robbed of nominations in other categories, so it’d be a little bit of justice if she took home the prize here.
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory – Since it’s unlikely that this film will win in other categories, it may get a pity vote. I think the strongest competitor is Mudbound but I don’t think the Academy will give that film the recognition it deserves.
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – At one point I’d have considered this a contender as an outsider upset, but once awards season kicked into high gear it’s been made clear that award shows no longer seem to want to recognize the film (likely due to its star/director, James Franco, who I’ve still yet to sort out my feelings on the allegations aimed at him).
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green – Not a chance, but kinda cool to see a comic book adaptation nominated. I also thought there was a chance Logan could grab one of the Best Picture spots, but I’m left puzzled by the decision to only fill 9 of the 10 possible films.
-My interview with James Mangold and the cast of Logan.
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin – I’ll be real upset if this wins. Sorkin is a great writer most of the time, but this film suffered from a serious case of hubris.
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees – I’d be pretty happy if this won. Dee Rees was robbed of nominations in other categories, so it’d be a little bit of justice if she took home the prize here.
Timothee Chalamet in Call Me By Your Name – Sony Pictures Classics
Original Screenplay: This is the category I’m most personally torn over, and yet the film I think is the least deserving may very well upset.
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani – This was one of my absolute favorite films of last year, so it’d be nice to see it get some recognition, however I think several of the other films in this category are going to be more appealing to awards voters.
-Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani on the success of “The Big Sick”
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele – I’m putting my money on this. Partially based on some of the analytical sites predicting it as winner, partially just on gut. Jordan Peele wrote a complex, layered, brilliant script. It spoke to audiences of all races and genders. If that isn’t Oscar worthy I don’t know what is.
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig – Personally, I would be overjoyed if this won. I’ve written before about how much I identified with the film, and it did take home the Golden Globe. However I don’t think that momentum will carry it over.
-Greta Gerwig on writing “Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor – While I find it bizarre that a film that will probably win Best Picture may not win Best Screenplay (for isn’t that the backbone of the story?) I don’t think this one will shape up for them.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh – I may lose my betting pool by not picking this, for the Academy loves a proven playwright.
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani – This was one of my absolute favorite films of last year, so it’d be nice to see it get some recognition, however I think several of the other films in this category are going to be more appealing to awards voters.
-Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani on the success of “The Big Sick”
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele – I’m putting my money on this. Partially based on some of the analytical sites predicting it as winner, partially just on gut. Jordan Peele wrote a complex, layered, brilliant script. It spoke to audiences of all races and genders. If that isn’t Oscar worthy I don’t know what is.
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig – Personally, I would be overjoyed if this won. I’ve written before about how much I identified with the film, and it did take home the Golden Globe. However I don’t think that momentum will carry it over.
-Greta Gerwig on writing “Lady Bird”
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor – While I find it bizarre that a film that will probably win Best Picture may not win Best Screenplay (for isn’t that the backbone of the story?) I don’t think this one will shape up for them.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh – I may lose my betting pool by not picking this, for the Academy loves a proven playwright.
Cinematography: Another category torn apart by who I want to win vs who will win.
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins – Roger Deakins is a legend. He’s been nominated 13 times (in 2007 he was nominated twice) and somehow has never won. The cinematography was also the best part of the film for sure.
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel – Won’t beat Deakins, or Morrison.
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema – Same for Dunkirk, better odds than Darkest Hour though.
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison – Rachel Morrison is the FIRST woman in the Academy’s 90 year history to be nominated in this category. That is pathetic. However it also speaks to how talented Morrison is in order to become the first. (she also was the DP on Black Panther) but I think Deakins will take it home.
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen – Another gorgeous film (those underwater shots!) but I don’t think this is likely.
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins – Roger Deakins is a legend. He’s been nominated 13 times (in 2007 he was nominated twice) and somehow has never won. The cinematography was also the best part of the film for sure.
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel – Won’t beat Deakins, or Morrison.
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema – Same for Dunkirk, better odds than Darkest Hour though.
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison – Rachel Morrison is the FIRST woman in the Academy’s 90 year history to be nominated in this category. That is pathetic. However it also speaks to how talented Morrison is in order to become the first. (she also was the DP on Black Panther) but I think Deakins will take it home.
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen – Another gorgeous film (those underwater shots!) but I don’t think this is likely.
Roger Deakins’ handiwork in Blade Runner 2049 – Warner Bros
Best Documentary Feature: I have seen 0 of these films because I am terrible… Therefore I’m going purely based on what the betting odds are.
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes
Best Documentary Short Subject: Hey I actually saw one of these! I’m not as terrible as I thought… but still going on betting odds.
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner – I have to give a shout out to this as it’s the one film I saw in this category, it’s worth checking out!
Best Live Action Short Film: Another one based on guesses and other wins.
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen
Best Foreign Language Film: Well, I just feel like a bad film fan at this point…
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul” (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes
Best Documentary Short Subject: Hey I actually saw one of these! I’m not as terrible as I thought… but still going on betting odds.
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner – I have to give a shout out to this as it’s the one film I saw in this category, it’s worth checking out!
Best Live Action Short Film: Another one based on guesses and other wins.
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen
Best Foreign Language Film: Well, I just feel like a bad film fan at this point…
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul” (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)
Film Editing: Okay! Back to having seen all the films in the category!
“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss – I thought Baby Driver was an excellent film (the fact that Kevin Spacey is in it casts an unfortunate shadow after the fact). It’d be a deserving win, but unlikely.
-Enjoy my interview with Elgort and director Edgar Wright for “Baby Driver.”
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith – Was I personally a fan of the non-linear way Dunkirk was told? Not really. However I can absolutely respect it, and I think voters will likely honor it.
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel – Good, but not strong enough to beat some of the other films.
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky – Usually the film to win Best Picture also wins Best Editing, but I could see it going otherwise this year.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory – Please, no thanks.
“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss – I thought Baby Driver was an excellent film (the fact that Kevin Spacey is in it casts an unfortunate shadow after the fact). It’d be a deserving win, but unlikely.
-Enjoy my interview with Elgort and director Edgar Wright for “Baby Driver.”
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith – Was I personally a fan of the non-linear way Dunkirk was told? Not really. However I can absolutely respect it, and I think voters will likely honor it.
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel – Good, but not strong enough to beat some of the other films.
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky – Usually the film to win Best Picture also wins Best Editing, but I could see it going otherwise this year.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory – Please, no thanks.
Dunkirk will probably sweep some of the technical categories – Warner Bros
Sound Editing: Sound is 51% of every film, according to my old Sound professor. Yes, Sound professor. I don’t disagree.
“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater – Soundtrack and sound was such a huge part of this movie, but Baby Driver isn’t your normal Oscar fare, so unfortunately I see it missing out.
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green – The 49% of this film that was cinematography will probably be the best bet at an award.
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King – The sound was definitely immersive, so I can see this winning (and I won’t dispute that it would deserve) this Oscar.
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira – Honestly I don’t disagree with any nomination in this category.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood – The Star Wars geek part of me would like to see the film honored, but I don’t think it’ll happen.
Sound Mixing: You may go “wait, why are there two different categories here?” Well there used to only be one. However if you think about it, a film like Star Wars: The Last Jedi is going to have a whole lot more made up sounds, and a soundtrack, and dialogue not filmed on set, than a film like… ok well the examples are weak this year but let’s say Dunkirk. That’s why technically two different films can win.
“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin – Again great sound in this film, but unlikely to win.
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill – Same.
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo – While technically two different films could win Mixing vs Editing, I don’t forsee that happening.
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern – This might suffer as a contender from the lack of dialogue by the two main leads.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick – Again, I feel like this should win. Watch the behind the scenes of them making the SFX of a Star Wars film sometime. However I don’t think the Force is strong enough this year.
“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater – Soundtrack and sound was such a huge part of this movie, but Baby Driver isn’t your normal Oscar fare, so unfortunately I see it missing out.
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green – The 49% of this film that was cinematography will probably be the best bet at an award.
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King – The sound was definitely immersive, so I can see this winning (and I won’t dispute that it would deserve) this Oscar.
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira – Honestly I don’t disagree with any nomination in this category.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood – The Star Wars geek part of me would like to see the film honored, but I don’t think it’ll happen.
Sound Mixing: You may go “wait, why are there two different categories here?” Well there used to only be one. However if you think about it, a film like Star Wars: The Last Jedi is going to have a whole lot more made up sounds, and a soundtrack, and dialogue not filmed on set, than a film like… ok well the examples are weak this year but let’s say Dunkirk. That’s why technically two different films can win.
“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin – Again great sound in this film, but unlikely to win.
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill – Same.
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo – While technically two different films could win Mixing vs Editing, I don’t forsee that happening.
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern – This might suffer as a contender from the lack of dialogue by the two main leads.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick – Again, I feel like this should win. Watch the behind the scenes of them making the SFX of a Star Wars film sometime. However I don’t think the Force is strong enough this year.
Harry Styles in Dunkirk. Thankfully he only acted, and didn’t contribute to the soundtrack? – Warner Bros
Production Design: Feel like we’re seeing the same 4 films over again? You’re not alone. I’m actually surprised Phantom Thread didn’t get a nod here.
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer – Ugh I did not like this remake, nor do I love this whole line of “live action” remakes from Disney, so I hope this doesn’t cause an upset and encourage them to make more. However, kudos to Sarah Greenwood for being nominated twice this year.
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola – I could see this having an outside chance at winning.
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer – In the technical categories I’d imagine this will only get Best Makeup and Hair.
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis – Probably not.
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau – What can I say, the Production Design was well done.
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer – Ugh I did not like this remake, nor do I love this whole line of “live action” remakes from Disney, so I hope this doesn’t cause an upset and encourage them to make more. However, kudos to Sarah Greenwood for being nominated twice this year.
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola – I could see this having an outside chance at winning.
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer – In the technical categories I’d imagine this will only get Best Makeup and Hair.
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis – Probably not.
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau – What can I say, the Production Design was well done.
Original Score: There are some serious legends in this category.
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer – This is Zimmer’s 10th nomination. He’s only won once… and it was for…. The Lion King. In a less competitive year he might win it just on reputation, but this year is cutthroat.
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood – I may not have liked the film that much, but I thought Jonny Greenwood of Radiohead’s score was fantastic. Though not fantastic enough to win.
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat – He’s taken home most other major awards in this category this year, so I don’t foresee a major upset.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams – Williams has been nominated 51 times. The only person with more, is Walt Disney with 59. He has also been nominated against himself multiple times (in 1995 he was nominated three times, though the rules were different and there was a Best Original Musical or Comedy Score category). I doubt however he will take home his sixth win this year.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell – Highly unlikely.
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer – This is Zimmer’s 10th nomination. He’s only won once… and it was for…. The Lion King. In a less competitive year he might win it just on reputation, but this year is cutthroat.
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood – I may not have liked the film that much, but I thought Jonny Greenwood of Radiohead’s score was fantastic. Though not fantastic enough to win.
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat – He’s taken home most other major awards in this category this year, so I don’t foresee a major upset.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams – Williams has been nominated 51 times. The only person with more, is Walt Disney with 59. He has also been nominated against himself multiple times (in 1995 he was nominated three times, though the rules were different and there was a Best Original Musical or Comedy Score category). I doubt however he will take home his sixth win this year.
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell – Highly unlikely.
Doug Jones as the creature in The Shape of Water – Fox Searchlight Pictures
Original Song: Again, shout out to Mary J. Blige who is a double nominee this year.
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige – Alas the Academy will probably not take her as she is…. But I promise she not gon’ cry about it. She’s stronger than that.
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens – If the average voting age of the Academy wasn’t over 60, maybe this would stand a chance?
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez – Look, it’s catchy AF. It’s unoffensive. It’s likely to win.
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common – Okay, it’d be pretty cool if Common became a two time Oscar winner. However it’s pretty unlikely that this will be the year that causes it.
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul – Somehow this won other awards, so I could see it upsetting. But this was the only good part of this movie, and therefore I don’t think the film as a whole should be rewarded by being able to slap “Academy Award Winner” on their campaigns.
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige – Alas the Academy will probably not take her as she is…. But I promise she not gon’ cry about it. She’s stronger than that.
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens – If the average voting age of the Academy wasn’t over 60, maybe this would stand a chance?
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez – Look, it’s catchy AF. It’s unoffensive. It’s likely to win.
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common – Okay, it’d be pretty cool if Common became a two time Oscar winner. However it’s pretty unlikely that this will be the year that causes it.
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul – Somehow this won other awards, so I could see it upsetting. But this was the only good part of this movie, and therefore I don’t think the film as a whole should be rewarded by being able to slap “Academy Award Winner” on their campaigns.
Gael Garcia Bernal and Robert Lopez recording Remember Me (also I love how it looks like he’s singing to the poster of The Interview). – Disney Pixar
Makeup and Hair: Why even bother to nominate the other two here? They already know who it’s going to.
“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick – If it doesn’t go to Darkest Hour I will eat a fat suit.
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard – I’m not 100% sure what they’re nominating this film for, not that I disliked the film. The costumes did more to make the piece than makeup and hair.
-Dench’s costar in “Victoria & Abdul” talks about her unexpected talents.
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten – Yes, this makeup was pretty transformative, but it’s on a kid so there’s less to cover? Is that not how we’re evaluating this?
“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick – If it doesn’t go to Darkest Hour I will eat a fat suit.
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard – I’m not 100% sure what they’re nominating this film for, not that I disliked the film. The costumes did more to make the piece than makeup and hair.
-Dench’s costar in “Victoria & Abdul” talks about her unexpected talents.
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten – Yes, this makeup was pretty transformative, but it’s on a kid so there’s less to cover? Is that not how we’re evaluating this?
Kristin Scott Thomas and Gary Oldman as Clementine and Winston Churchill – Focus Features
Costume Design: Ah yes, another category where most people get up and go to the bathroom.
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran – Can you really take credit for the designs when you stole them from an animated film?
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran – Makeup and Hair made this movie, not costume.
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges – It’s a film about a dude who makes clothes. That dude is played by Academy favorite Daniel Day-Lewis, and directed by industry darling Paul Thomas Anderson…. If this doesn’t win PTA might need to consider retiring too.
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira – Here’s one of those confusing moments, is Doug Jones’ aquatic creature outfitting a costume, or is it part of the production design, or is it a visual effect? Even though experts vote in the technical categories, the outfit was transcendent and they are probably just as confused as the rest of us, and will therefore award the prize to something more traditional.
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle – It’s an honor to be nominated.
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran – Can you really take credit for the designs when you stole them from an animated film?
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran – Makeup and Hair made this movie, not costume.
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges – It’s a film about a dude who makes clothes. That dude is played by Academy favorite Daniel Day-Lewis, and directed by industry darling Paul Thomas Anderson…. If this doesn’t win PTA might need to consider retiring too.
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira – Here’s one of those confusing moments, is Doug Jones’ aquatic creature outfitting a costume, or is it part of the production design, or is it a visual effect? Even though experts vote in the technical categories, the outfit was transcendent and they are probably just as confused as the rest of us, and will therefore award the prize to something more traditional.
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle – It’s an honor to be nominated.
Vicky Krieps and Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, which if it doesn’t win this category… probably fails as a film. – Focus Features
Visual Effects: Any of these could win and I wouldn’t argue it.
“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer – It was good.
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick – While it’d be fun to say “The Academy Award winning Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” I don’t see it likely.
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus – If one movie about apes is going to win, it’s not going to be this one.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan – Did I feel like the Porgs and crystal foxes were a bit of an attempt to show off (and sell toys?) yep. Did I still love The Last Jedi? Yep. However I don’t think it’s their year.
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist – It was damned dirty impressive as hell. Also if you know how much work the animators and VFX team put into animating OVER the mocap performances (Andy Serkis needs to stop ignoring them or downplaying their contribution), you’d double down on why this deserves an Oscar.
-A chat with nominee Joe Letteri, and Andy Serkis
“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer – It was good.
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick – While it’d be fun to say “The Academy Award winning Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” I don’t see it likely.
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus – If one movie about apes is going to win, it’s not going to be this one.
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan – Did I feel like the Porgs and crystal foxes were a bit of an attempt to show off (and sell toys?) yep. Did I still love The Last Jedi? Yep. However I don’t think it’s their year.
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist – It was damned dirty impressive as hell. Also if you know how much work the animators and VFX team put into animating OVER the mocap performances (Andy Serkis needs to stop ignoring them or downplaying their contribution), you’d double down on why this deserves an Oscar.
-A chat with nominee Joe Letteri, and Andy Serkis
Hail Caesar. War for the Planet of the Apes – 20th Century Fox