Academy Awards 2021 Picks

We don’t even know how to evaluate the 2021 Academy Awards. We also honestly don’t know if we should care. Still we respect and are grateful to everyone willing to put their content out there in a year where we were desperate for entertainment. However had this been a “normal” year we’re pretty confident we wouldn’t see half of these folks nominated. That being said let’s get into it. 

Best Picture

As per usual we are disappointed by this category but are not sure we can fully blame the Academy at this point. The rules state they can have up to 10 nominees, but in an odd maneuver are only choosing to honor 8. We would have loved to see something like Soul cross nominated since there are spots to spare. 

• THE FATHER, David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne
• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH, Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler
• MANK, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski
• MINARI, Christina Oh
• NOMADLAND, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara
• SOUND OF METAL, Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, Marc Platt and Stuart Besser

Should win: Minari or Promising Young Woman, or hell even Sound of Metal. 

Will probably win: Nomadland. We have no objection to this winning. We just weren’t wowed by it. However it has consistently performed at all the other awards shows, therefore we’re figuring based on the way voting works it’ll take home the grand prize. 

Actor in a Leading Role

• Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL
• Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER
• Gary Oldman, MANK
• Steven Yeun, MINARI

Should win: Steven Yeun or Riz Ahmed or Anthony Hopkins.

Will win: Chadwick Boseman. As we’ve stated before, we have no objection to Boseman, but we didn’t love Ma Rainey and we don’t really subscribe to the idea of “oh he won’t be able to perform again so we should give it to him.” That seems unfair to the other actors. If there were any category at the 2021 Academy Awards that we’d consider a done deal, it’d be this one. 

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
• Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
• Leslie Odom, Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
• Paul Raci, SOUND OF METAL
• Lakeith Stanfield, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Will win: We think everyone in this category is certainly deserving. Though do we think it would have made more sense to nominate Baron Cohen for leading role for Borat instead of Oldman for Mank).

Could Win: Paul Raci did very very well at the critics awards. In addition, Lakeith Stanfield gives an excellent performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. However there’s also a mild concern that the Judas double nominees could split the 2021 Academy Awards voters, thereby paving the way for a Raci win.

Actress in a Leading Role

• Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
• Andra Day, THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
• Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
• Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
• Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Will probably win: Frances McDormand. The second we saw Nomadland we said to ourselves “Frances McDormand is going to win an Oscar for sh*tting in a bucket.”

Could Win: We wouldn’t count Davis, Day, or Mulligan out. If we had our druthers it would actually go to Mulligan as she gives a stretch performance. McDormand shows us similar tones in other roles she’s in.

Should have been nominated: Han Ye-Ri from Minari deserves to be here more than Kirby. While Kirby was fine, her movie is overall weaker.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM: DELIVERY OF PRODIGIOUS BRIBE TO AMERICAN REGIME FOR MAKE BENEFIT ONCE GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
• Glenn Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY
• Olivia Colman, THE FATHER
• Amanda Seyfried, MANK
• Yuh-Jung Youn, MINARI

Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn, she’s won every other award plus she MAKES Minari. If she doesn’t we will be very upset. 

Animated Feature Film

• ONWARD, Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
• OVER THE MOON, Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
• A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON, Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
• SOUL, Pete Docter and Dana Murray
• WOLFWALKERS, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

Will win: While Wolfwalkers could cause an upset we’re pretty confident that in a year where Black Lives Matter was on the forefront of everyone’s minds, it would be remiss to not honor the one film with a Black lead. Plus Soul is just a beautiful film. We’d love to root for an Asian led film. Yet we find Over the Moon incredibly problematic and don’t think it deserves to be there.  

Cinematography

• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH, Sean Bobbitt
• MANK, Erik Messerschmidt
• NEWS OF THE WORLD, Dariusz Wolski
• NOMADLAND, Joshua James Richards
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, Phedon Papamichael

Should and will win: Nomadland. There are two things we admire and respect about Nomadland, one of them being the cinematography. 

Costume Design

• EMMA, Alexandra Byrne
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM, Ann Roth
• MANK, Trish Summerville
• MULAN, Bina Daigeler
• PINOCCHIO, Massimo Cantini Parrini

Will probably win: In a particularly underwhelming year we can see them trying to make themselves feel better about giving Ma Rainey at least a few of the Oscars they nominated it for and therefore this is an easy one with little competition. 

Could upset: Mank because everything about Mank is designed to appeal to the old timey Academy Awards voters. 

Directing

• ANOTHER ROUND, Thomas Vinterberg
• MANK, David Fincher
• MINARI, Lee Isaac Chung
• NOMADLAND, Chloé Zhao
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, Emerald Fennell

Will probably win: Zhao for Nomadland. She has consistently swept all the other awards this past year. Also the other thing we admire about Nomadland is Zhao’s ability to direct non-actors into giving performances on par with McDormand and Stratharin. If that doesn’t showcase directing chops we don’t know what does. 

Could upset: Vinterberg’s inclusion here is unexpected and could cause an upset. Fincher also has the most outside of chances just because as we said before, Mank is like catnip to the old time Oscar voters because they either idolize the era and people it is about. Or because they are literally so ancient they were around for it. 

Should have been nominated: We’re surprised to see Regina King left off in favor of Vinterberg. Not that we thought One Night In Miami… was particularly spectacular but since politics enters so much into voting, having three female directing Oscar nominees would have been spectacular. Of note this is only the first time ever that two women are nominated in the category. Only one (Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker) has ever won. 

Documentary Feature

• COLLECTIVE, Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
• CRIP CAMP, Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
• THE MOLE AGENT, Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
• MY OCTOPUS TEACHER, Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
• TIME, Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

Will likely win: We’re honestly not sure. Two of these films being widely accessible on streaming (Crip Camp and My Octopus Teacher) may work in their favor. Normally we’d say streaming isn’t a plus for many films, with exceptions. However Documentary Feature seems to be clear of that stigma. Collective also being nominated in another category may see it win this, since it’s unlikely to win the other one. We’re going with Collective but won’t be shocked if it’s My Octopus Teacher or Crip Camp. 

Should have been nominated: Boys State and The Way I See It

Documentary Short Subject

• COLETTE, Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
• A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION, Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
• DO NOT SPLIT, Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
• HUNGER WARD, Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
• A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA, Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

Will win: This is just a guess.

Film Editing

• THE FATHER, Yorgos Lamprinos
• NOMADLAND, Chloé Zhao
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, Frédéric Thoraval
• SOUND OF METAL, Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, Alan Baumgarten

Will win: We wouldn’t be upset if any of these films (okay maybe not The Trial of the Chicago 7) won in this category but we think it’s Nomadland’s to lose.

International Feature

• ANOTHER ROUND (Denmark) 
• BETTER DAYS (Hong Kong)
• COLLECTIVE (Romania)
• THE MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN (Tunisia)
• QUO VADIS, AIDA (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Will win: Another Round. We thought the movie was fine but honestly it got overhyped for us. The film is about self indulgent white men who constantly get trashed (yes that’s a gross oversimplification)… so we could see a lot of Academy Award voters who feel obligated to vote in a performatively diverse way in other categories using this as an outlet to show their true colors.
Could upset: As we mentioned, Collective is up for this category as well as Documentary Feature so couldddddd surprise us here. 

Makeup and Hairstyling

• EMMA, Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
• HILLBILLY ELEGY, Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
• MANK, Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
• PINOCCHIO, Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

Will win: Same logic as to why Ma Rainey will win costume.

Original Score

• DA 5 BLOODS, Terence Blanchard
• MANK, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
• MINARI, Emile Mosseri
• NEWS OF THE WORLD, James Newton Howard
• SOUL, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

Will win: Along with Best Actor in a Leading Role this is the category we feel the most confident about. It was a spectacular score and the movie relied on music. What more do you want?

Original Song

• FIGHT FOR YOU, from Judas and the Black Messiah; Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
• HEAR MY VOICE, from The Trial of the Chicago 7; Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
• HUSAVIK, from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
• IO SÌ (SEEN), from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se); Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
• SPEAK NOW, from One Night in Miami…; Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

Will win: Nothing else felt particularly standout and they probably feel obligated to give One Night in Miami… something to try to prove diversity. Yes we hate that it feels like they are tallying diversity votes but because The Academy has such a horrid track record it throws an asterisk on many of the diverse nominees. We do think it’s fun that Eurovision was nominated here.

Production Design

• THE FATHER
  • Production Design: Peter Francis
  • Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
• MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
  • Production Design: Mark Ricker
  • Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
• MANK
  • Production Design: Donald Graham Burt
  • Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
• NEWS OF THE WORLD
  • Production Design: David Crank
  • Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
• TENET
  • Production Design: Nathan Crowley
  • Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Will win: If there’s one thing Hollywood loves, it’s Hollywood. Given the way that Mank recreated the world of 1930’s Tinseltown, we can’t imagine this going elsewhere.

Animated Short

• BURROW, Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
• GENIUS LOCI, Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
• IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU, Will McCormack and Michael Govier
• OPERA, Erick Oh
• YES-PEOPLE, Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

May win: We’re honestly guessing on this one. As with all the other 2021 Academy Awards nominees, there was an odd crop to pick from. We’re certainly rooting for Erick Oh here but his film is somewhere between a film and a moving Renaissance art piece so it’s possible Oscar voters won’t “get it.” We’re hoping they take a chance on it!

Live Action Short

• FEELING THROUGH, Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
• THE LETTER ROOM, Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
• THE PRESENT, Farah Nabulsi and Ossama Bawardi
• TWO DISTANT STRANGERS, Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
• WHITE EYE, Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

May win: Just a guess.

Sound 

• GREYHOUND, Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
• MANK, Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
• NEWS OF THE WORLD, Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
• SOUL, Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
• SOUND OF METAL, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

Should and will win: This is the first year the sound categories are combined (previously Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) and sound is LITERALLY in the title of Sound of Metal.  

Visual Effects

• LOVE AND MONSTERS, Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
• THE MIDNIGHT SKY, Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
• MULAN, Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
• THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN, Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
• TENET, Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

Will win: Even though Tenet made absolutely no sense, the visual effects were certainly of a high caliber. 

Adapted Screenplay

• BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM: DELIVERY OF PRODIGIOUS BRIBE TO AMERICAN REGIME FOR MAKE BENEFIT ONCE GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
• Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
• THE FATHER, Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
• NOMADLAND, Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
• ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…, Screenplay by Kemp Powers
• THE WHITE TIGER, Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

May win: The Father could sneak in here and snag this. We really did enjoy the film and though we haven’t read the original material we could imagine it would be challenging to adapt. 

Could win: Nomadland is likely taking home the big awards so it’s also possible they will take this home for consistency.

Original Screenplay

• JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH, Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
• MINARI, Written by Lee Isaac Chung
• PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, Written by Emerald Fennell
• SOUND OF METAL, Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
• THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7, Written by Aaron Sorkin

Should win: Promising Young Woman or Minari. Both incredibly well done films that we’d be delighted to see win. While we think they aren’t as strong of films, Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah are also very good. 

May upset: So basically we’d be happy if anyone but Aaron Sorkin won but of COURSE he’s a darling of the Oscars so we could see him swooping this.

Who are your 2021 Academy Awards picks?