Academy Awards 2022 Picks

At this point even as fervent film fans we find ourselves feeling lackluster about the 2022 Academy Awards. Cinema is still reeling (get it?!) from production and release delays due to COVID. The divide between what the “industry” feels is awardworthy and what “general audiences” deem watchable seems greater than ever. 

This is honestly the first year in a long time we find ourselves lukewarm on the whole hubbub. It’s traditionally one of the most exciting times of the year for us but it’s a somewhat underwhelming film. That isn’t to discredit the films overall, but nothing felt truly exceptional or memorable. It’s quite possible five or twenty years from now we’ll look back on some of these and decide they’re classics. However we think those are slim odds.

That all being said, the show goes on. Here are our picks for the 2022 nominees. 

Best Picture

• BELFAST, Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
• CODA, Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
• DON’T LOOK UP, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
• DRIVE MY CAR, Teruhisa Yamamoto
• DUNE, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter
• KING RICHARD, Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith
• LICORICE PIZZA, Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson
• NIGHTMARE ALLEY, Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper
• THE POWER OF THE DOG, Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier
• WEST SIDE STORY, Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger

Should win: Honestly can we abstain this year? We did enjoy Drive My Car and The Worst Person in the World (which didn’t even get a nod in this category but should have). However we don’t even know if there was a distinguished BEST picture of this year. Also this doesn’t even begin to address the omission of more popular fare like animated films or superhero flicks. 

Will probably win: If you’d asked us a few weeks ago we’d have said The Power of the Dog had this on lock. However Jane Campion’s recent unfortunate Critic’s Choice awards speech gaffe where she chose to put down two of the greatest athletes of all time who just happen to be women of color (the Williams Sisters)…. And a last min surge for the more audience friendly CODA we could see this going either way.

Actor in a Leading Role

• Javier Bardem, BEING THE RICARDOS
• Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG
• Andrew Garifeld, TICK, TICK… BOOM!
• Will Smith, KING RICHARD
• Denzel Washington, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Should win: Again… can we abstain? Some of these folks we are shocked to see nominated for these particular performances in these particular films. We guess if we had to give it to one it would be Cumberbatch … or Garfield.

Will win: Look for a The Power of the Dog sweep in the acting categories. 

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST
• Troy Kotsur, CODA
• Jesse Plemons, THE POWER OF THE DOG
• J.K. Simmons, BEING THE RICARDOS
• Kodi Smit-Mcphee, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Will and should win: There could have been a … dog … fight … here, but we think it’s Smit-Mcphee’s to lose.

Actress in a Leading Role

• Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
• Olivia Colman, THE LOST DAUGHTER
• Penélope Cruz, PARALLEL MOTHERS
• Nicole Kidman, BEING THE RICARDOS
• Kristen Stewart, SPENCER

Will and should win: Awards stick to Colman like flies to flypaper. Plus of this lot we thought she was the most outstanding (but that isn’t saying a ton) but it seems like the 2022 Academy Awards will be no different for her.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Jessie Buckley, THE LOST DAUGHTER
• Ariana DeBose, WEST SIDE STORY
• Judi Dench, BELFAST
• Kirsten Dunst, THE POWER OF THE DOG
• Aunjaune Ellis, KING RICHARD

Will and should win: Not normally our favorite actress but she gave a phenomenal performance in this. We could see DeBose pulling a strange upset.

Animated Feature Film

• ENCANTO, Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
• FLEE, Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
• LUCA, Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
• THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES, Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
• RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON, Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho

We honestly don’t know which way this one will go and usually this is the category we have the strongest opinion on. Encanto is widely popular and has the might of the house of mouse marketing money behind it. The MItchells vs. The Machines was fun and original but zany and from Sony and Netflix which sadly in this category can be perceived as a handicap. Finally there’s Flee which made history as the first animated film to be nominated in this category AND Best Documentary AND International Feature. Given that wider voters sometimes neglect this category they may decide to give this one to Flee and not recognize it in the other “real” categories. 

Cinematography

• DUNE, Greig Fraser
• NIGHTMARE ALLEY, Dan Laustsen
• THE POWER OF THE DOG, Ari Wegner
• THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH, Bruno Delbonnel
• WEST SIDE STORY, Janusz Kaminski

Will and should win: Dune received an immense number of nominations but sadly was missing from certain categories it deserved. We do think it’ll receive rightful recognition here.

Costume Design

• CRUELLA, Jenny Beavan
• CYRANO, Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
• DUNE, Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
• NIGHTMARE ALLEY, Luis Sequeira
• WEST SIDE STORY, Paul Tazewell

Will win: Cruella exists purely to win in this category. 

Directing

• BELFAST, Kenneth Branagh
• DRIVE MY CAR, Ryusuke Hamaguchi
• LICORICE PIZZA, Paul Thomas Anderson
• THE POWER OF THE DOG, Jane Campion
• WEST SIDE STORY, Steven Spielberg

Will win: Again if you’d asked us a few weeks ago we’d have celebrated the idea of Campion making history as the first woman to be nominated in the category twice. Also to have two women back to back. That being said as we mentioned her recent lack of allyship left a sour taste in our mouths and will likely put a bit of a damper. 

Documentary Feature

• ASCENSION, Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
• ATTICA, Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
• FLEE, Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
• SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED), Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
• WRITING WITH FIRE, Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

Will win: Flee would be a strong contender but as we said we think it has a better chance at Animated Feature. This would leave the somewhat indulgent but audience friendly Summer of Soul to possibly take home the 2022 Oscar here. 

Documentary Short Subject

• AUDIBLE, Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean
• LEAD ME HOME, Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
• THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL, Ben Proudfoot
• THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR, Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
• WHEN WE WERE BULLIES, Jay Rosenblatt

Will win: In these “smaller” categories often big names being attached will help a film rise to the top. Therefore we’re guessing The Queen of Basketball will win.

Film Editing

• DON’T LOOK UP, Hank Corwin
• DUNE, Joe Walker
• KING RICHARD, Pamela Martin
• THE POWER OF THE DOG, Peter Sciberras
• TICK, TICK…BOOM!, Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

Will and should win: Historically this category used to go hand in hand with Best Picture but we think Dune was TOO popular to win the top prize, so it’ll continue to pick up these technical awards. 

International Feature

• DRIVE MY CAR (Japan)
• FLEE (Denmark)
• THE HAND OF GOD (Italy)
• LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM (Bhutan)
• THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (Norway)

This category actually has some of the best pictures of the year in it, but because goodness forbid they not be in English they won’t contend for top prize. We’re calling it as a toss up between Drive My Car and The Worst Person in the World but giving a small edge to Drive My Car.

Makeup and Hairstyling

• COMING 2 AMERICA, Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
• CRUELLA, Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
• DUNE, Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
• THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
• HOUSE OF GUCCI, Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

Will win: In a stronger year this might not have stood a chance (even though so much of Tammy Faye the person is about her makeup) but luckily for this film the field is quieter.

Original Score

• DON’T LOOK UP, Nicholas Britell
• DUNE, Hans Zimmer
• ENCANTO, Germaine Franco
• PARALLEL MOTHERS, Alberto Iglesias
• THE POWER OF THE DOG, Jonny Greenwood

Will win: Lots of power houses in this category (as per usual) but Dune had that Zimmer distinctness that is magnetic.

Original Song

• BE ALIVE, King Richard; Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
• DOS ORUGUITAS, Encanto; Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
• DOWN TO JOY, Belfast; Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
• NO TIME TO DIE, No Time to Die; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
• SOMEHOW YOU DO, Four Good Days; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

Should win: A song that isn’t even nominated – We Don’t Talk about Bruno should have been in here instead of Dos Oruguitas but for some reason Disney didn’t think the banger / earworm would be Oscar worthy…

Will win: In spite of Queen Bey’s presence in the category and the opportunity to give Lin-Manuel his EGOT – we think they might appeal to the youths but also the olds and give it to a classic franchise (Bond) with young hip nominees (Eilish and O’Connell).

Production Design

• DUNE, Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
• NIGHTMARE ALLEY, Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
• THE POWER OF THE DOG, Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
• THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH, Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
• WEST SIDE STORY, Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

Will win: Another technical one we think will go to Dune.

Animated Short

• AFFAIRS OF THE ART, Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
• BESTIA, Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
• BOXBALLET, Anton Dyakov
• ROBIN ROBIN, Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
• THE WINDSHIELD WIPER, Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez

Will win: Family friendly plus Netflix money plus Aardman prestige will probably give Robin Robin the edge. Yes we understand the irony of Netflix being sometimes a handicap but sometimes a blessing.

Live Action Short

• ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN, Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
• THE DRESS, Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
• THE LONG GOODBYE, Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
• ON MY MIND, Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
• PLEASE HOLD, K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse

Will win: Star. Power. 

Sound

• BELFAST, Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
• DUNE, Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
• NO TIME TO DIE, Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
• THE POWER OF THE DOG, Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
• WEST SIDE STORY, Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

Will and should win: Anyone with functioning hearing should recognize the impressie soundscapes of Dune. 

Visual Effects

• DUNE, Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
• FREE GUY, Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
• NO TIME TO DIE, Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
• SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS, Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
• SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME, Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

Will win: Sadly while we think either of the superhero flicks or Free Guy would be deserving of this 2022 Academy Awards category, we think Dune has more “prestige.” Not that there was anything wrong with the effects of the film we’d just like less discrimination against popular films in other categories.

Adapted Screenplay

• CODA Screenplay by Siân Heder
• DRIVE MY CAR, Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
• DUNE, Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
• THE LOST DAUGHTER, Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
• THE POWER OF THE DOG, Written by Jane Campion

Will win: There are a few films that could upset (Drive My Car and CODA) but we think a lot of people may have voted early and for The Power of the Dog. 

Original Screenplay

• BELFAST, Written by Kenneth Branagh
• DON’T LOOK UP, Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
• KING RICHARD, Written by Zach Baylin
• LICORICE PIZZA, Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
• THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD, Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

Should win: The Worst Person in the World felt incredibly original but the not English handicap is probably coming into play.
Will win: Belfast has had some strange surges and with Branagh’s longevity in the industry it may eek out. As long as it isn’t the racist Licorice Pizza we’ll be happy.

Overall it feels like a lackluster year but maybe we can hope for some upsets at the 2022 Academy Awards.